A few days ago, he put forward his prediction on the development of residential solar energy and energy storage market and technology in the United States in 2020 and the next 10 years.
It is not easy to predict the future development, especially when the solar and energy storage industries adopt emerging technologies and face higher requirements. Here, some predictions are put forward, and we hope that the prediction of the user-side energy system is roughly correct.
1. The matching deployment of energy storage system and solar power generation system will become the standard
Today, few independent solar power generation facilities are deployed. Net metering, unreliable mains power, lower battery costs, changes in grid service functions and energy management functions will drive customers to choose solar power generation facilities and battery energy storage systems that provide more comprehensive services. When necessary, the business of the solar power generation facility contractor will extend to the spare panel and communication cable wiring, as well as complex commissioning and configuration procedures.
2. Need new cost indicators
For more than 20 years, the solar energy industry has been measuring costs based on installed capacity. However, adding the battery energy storage system to the solar power generation system will increase the cost and make the energy saving calculation become confused. We hope that experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) can better explain these new indicators.
3. Is there a corresponding application?
Mobile applications are the standard for customer system monitoring. In order for these applications to work properly, it is necessary to have reliable inverter communication with a server in the cloud. Although Wi-Fi, ZigBee and Bluetooth protocols are convenient and relatively cheap, they depend on the customer's router and Internet connection. Hardwired Ethernet or high-bandwidth cellular protocol is more suitable for reliable communication required by customer applications.
4. Software is becoming more and more important
The experienced solar energy and energy storage system contractor will select the system according to the software function: customer application program, installation program debugging, management interface, and utility interface. Regardless of the capability and function of the hardware, the software must pay a certain fee.
5. Net costs increase rather than decrease
With the rise of labor, inverter and rack costs, energy storage manufacturers are increasing the licensing fees and safety requirements of energy storage systems, and their regulatory restrictions are more stringent (especially battery deployment). Customers expect more integration with existing electrical systems. Worse, the gradual reduction of investment tax credit will increase the deployment cost of energy storage system by 4% in 2020, 4% in 2021 and 12% to 22% in 2022. However, lower hardware costs will not offset these higher software costs.
6. Battery and inverter integration
Unlike solar modules that can be interchanged with almost all inverters, the battery energy storage system will be designed and branded by the inverter company. The integration between battery and inverter is specific to maintain its integrity, performance and ease of installation. The contractor hopes to have a contact point for solar energy and energy storage system.
7. No standard energy system interface
There is a lack of coordination between various residential energy systems (solar energy, energy storage, electric vehicles, HVAC, lighting, etc.) and major home application providers Google and Apple. Security requirements and lack of industry standards mean that it will take at least five years to integrate these devices. At the same time, the dedicated applications of each major device will continue to be applied to mobile phones.
8. Battery performance will remain challenging
The reliability and expected performance of the solar system have been fully proved. However, the performance of battery systems depends on more variables (temperature, utilization rate, building consumption, battery reliability, operating characteristics), which makes it easier to exaggerate the benefits of these systems and almost impossible to predict the cost savings.
9. Electric vehicles use batteries with better performance
As electric vehicle manufacturers are committed to developing and adopting batteries to improve the driving range of electric vehicles, it may take five to ten years to adopt more suitable batteries.
10. Dawn of the development of industrial and commercial energy storage
About two years ago, when the industry-leading inverter and battery company released a well-integrated turnkey solution, the residential battery energy storage system began to develop rapidly. When these companies launch battery energy storage systems based on existing solar inverters, commercial and industrial energy storage customers will achieve the same growth.
Solar energy, wind power generation and energy storage systems will play a crucial role in reducing the carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming. The energy industry will continue to step up efforts to solve this problem and provide practical, influential and cost-effective solutions.